People
who immigrated to Canada — or are within two generations of family
members who did — are more likely to support the Liberals than the
Conservatives, according to a new survey.
The
Nanos Research poll, conducted for CTV News and The Globe and Mail,
found the widest gap in support among first-generation Canadian
citizens, meaning people with at least one parent who was born in
another country.
“People talk about diaspora
politics, … people that are new Canadians, and who do they support, who
do they not support, what are their political preferences?” said chief
data scientist Nik Nanos on CTV News Trend Line.
“When
we profiled and looked at how people said that they were going to be
voting, or what parties that they were going to support in the election
and on the leadership front, who they preferred, (there was) a pretty
significant difference.”
Within the group of
first-generation Canadians, 46.1 per cent of respondents said they
favour the Liberals while 35.8 per cent said the same about the
Conservatives, a difference of 10.3 percentage points.
Only 8.5 per cent said they support the NDP, and just 4.7 per cent said the same about the Greens.
Smaller support gap among immigrants
There
was a similar divide among second-generation Canadians — those with at
least one grandparent who was born in another country — of whom 47 per
cent of respondents said they support the Liberals and 37.1 per cent
said that about the Conservatives.
Few favoured the NDP or Greens in that group either, at 11.1 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively.
Immigrants
themselves were more closely split, with 46 per cent favouring the
Liberals and 42.7 per cent favouring the Conservatives, a difference of
3.3 percentage points. The survey found 6.2 per cent of that group
supported the NDP, while 3.5 per cent said the same about the Greens.
“It
means that places like Montreal that have significant immigrant, first-
and second-generation individuals living in Montreal (and) places like
Toronto, places like the GTA that have a significant first- and
second-generation Canadian immigrant population -- right now at least,
they’re favoring the Liberals,” said Nanos.
That
hasn’t always been the case. In the past Stephen Harper government, for
instance, Nanos said it was a big part of the Conservative strategy to
“tap into those diaspora communities. And you know, when the
Conservatives did well among the diaspora community, that usually
pointed to a Conservative victory.”
But right
now, research is favouring the Liberals when it comes to diaspora
committees. “And those happen to be in critical battlegrounds,” said
Nanos, “like the 905 and also in the Lower Mainland in British
Columbia.”
Of
note, however, Nanos said the Bloc Québécois has less support among
immigrants, first-generation and second-generation Canadians in Québec.
Zero per cent of respondents who were born in another country said they support the Bloc.
‘Dead heat’ among those with deeper roots
Nanos
said there was a “dead heat” between the Liberals and Conservatives
among respondents with “weak or no connection to immigration,” meaning
those whose entire families have been Canada-born for at least three
generations.
Among those respondents, 40.6 per cent said they favoured the Liberals and 40.5 per cent said they favoured the Conservatives.
Asked
for their preferred prime minister, respondents favoured Liberal Leader
Mark Carney over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre by about nine
percentage points overall.
Nanos noted Carney
held “a stronger lead with those more closely connected to
immigration,” particularly second-generation Canadians, among whom the
Liberal candidate was ahead by nearly 20 percentage points.
The
survey was conducted online and over the phone from April 21 to 23,
among 1,307 randomly selected adults. The results have a margin of error
of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
